How many years will the ongoing chip shortage affect technology firms across the world? This week, multiple tech executives offered their own dismal estimates as part of their usual public financial disclosures, with the worst one coming in at “a couple of years.”
That nasty estimate comes from Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who offered that vague timeframe to The Washington Post in an interview on Tuesday. He clarified that as an estimate for how long it would take the company to “build capacity” to potentially address supply shortages. The conversation came as Intel offered to step up for two supply chains particularly pinched by the silicon drought: medical supplies and in-car computer systems.
In previous statements, Gelsinger pointed to Intel’s current $20 billion plan to build a pair of factories in Arizona, and this week’s interview added praise for President Joe Biden’s proposed $50 billion chip-production infrastructure plan—though Gelsinger indicated that Biden should be ready to spend more than that.
Born in Arizona…
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei offered a similarly dire estimate to investors on Thursday, saying that the Taiwan-based company hoped to “offer more capacity” for meeting retail and manufacturing demand “in 2023.” TSMC, coincidentally, is moving forward with a manufacturing plant of its own in Arizona, which Bloomberg claims could cost “up to $12 billion,” despite the company clarifying that it intends to prioritize research, development, and production in its home nation.
Graphics card and SoC producer Nvidia joined the grim estimate club this week, though Nvidia has a more optimistic belief that it will emerge with “sufficient supply to support sequential growth beyond [fiscal] Q1 ,” according to CFO Colette Kress. Until then, “we expect demand to continue to exceed supply for much of this year,” she added. (Having seen the comment sections of recent GPU reviews at Ars Technica, we sure believe that.)
But as tech companies scramble to navigate natural disasters, exponential consumer demand, and the building of brand-new facilities, some questions remain unanswered. How will so much scaling up of new factories turn out? Will they meet their construction deadlines, and will they be anywhere near as efficient as promised or hoped once their lines open up? Automakers and gamers alike will be watching with keen interest.